China recorded its lowest marriage rate in over four decades in 2024, with only 6.10 million couples marrying, a 20.5% drop from 2023. This decline, driven by shifting social values, financial pressures, and a shrinking population of women of childbearing age, has implications for the already falling birth rate. Though births rose to 9.54 million in 2024, largely due to the auspicious Year of the Dragon, experts predict a decline in 2025. Government measures aim to address these demographic challenges.
China witnessed its lowest number of new marriages in over four decades in 2024, shedding light on the nation’s evolving social dynamics and demographic challenges. According to the Chinese Ministry of Civil Affairs, only 6.10 million couples tied the knot last year, a significant 20.5% decline from 2023. This marks the lowest figure since 1980, reflecting how economic pressures and shifting social values are reshaping attitudes toward marriage and family life.
In contrast, the number of divorces in China rose slightly by 1.1%, reaching 2.82 million in 2024, despite the downturn in marriage registrations.
Experts warn that this declining marriage rate could exacerbate the country’s already falling birth rate. Since most births in China occur within married households, fewer marriages are expected to result in even lower birth numbers in 2025.
Multiple factors contribute to this trend, including a shrinking population of women of childbearing age, evolving perspectives on relationships, and mounting financial pressures. Despite government initiatives aimed at promoting marriage and parenthood, many young Chinese individuals are prioritizing career goals, delaying marriage, or opting out altogether due to concerns over the high cost of raising children.
Interestingly, there was a rare boost in birth numbers in 2024, with 9.54 million babies born compared to 9.02 million in 2023. Analysts attribute this temporary increase to the spike in marriages during 2023 and the influence of the Year of the Dragon, considered auspicious in Chinese culture. “Dragon babies” are believed to bring good fortune, prompting many couples to plan their pregnancies accordingly. However, demographers caution that this uptick is unlikely to persist, with births projected to decline again in 2025.
China has introduced various measures to address these demographic challenges. In October 2024, the State Council outlined 13 targeted strategies to encourage marriage and childbirth, including:
Maternity Insurance Expansion: Flexible workers and rural migrants participating in urban workers’ medical insurance are now eligible for maternity insurance.
Workplace Leave Policies: Authorities are urging the implementation of maternity, paternity, childbirth reward, and childcare leave to support parents.
Childbirth Subsidies and Tax Relief: A new system offers childbirth subsidies along with increased personal income tax deductions.
Medical Insurance for Reproductive Services: Labour pain relief and assisted reproductive technologies are now eligible for insurance reimbursement.
Health Education and Early Care: Efforts are being made to enhance health education for adolescents and improve care for early pregnancies and abortions.
Pediatric Resource Expansion: More resources are being allocated to pediatric care, ensuring better access at the community level.
Child Care Accessibility: Childcare centers are being established in cities and new residential communities.
Housing Support for Larger Families: Local governments are raising housing loan limits for families with multiple children.
China’s population has been in decline since 2022, with 14% of its citizens now aged 65 or older. Nearly 300 million people are over 60, a figure expected to surpass 400 million by 2033 and 500 million by 2050, when seniors will represent nearly 35% of the population.
Over the past decade, the nation has relaxed family planning policies to encourage population growth. Families have been allowed to have two children since 2016, with a third child permitted starting in 2021. Despite these efforts, reversing the demographic trends remains a significant challenge for China’s future.
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