Elon Musk highlighted global population trends as a significant challenge, sharing a graph on X (formerly Twitter) that projects demographic changes by 2100, particularly in Nigeria, the US, China, and India. The graph, originally posted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account, stresses concerns over declining fertility rates, with the UK’s rate hitting a record low of 1.44 children per woman. While some nations face declines, the US, Canada, and Australia are expected to maintain stable populations, while African nations may experience substantial growth.
Elon Musk has drawn attention to a pressing issue regarding the world’s population trends, which he considers one of humanity’s significant challenges. Recently, he shared a graph on X (formerly Twitter) that illustrates projected demographic changes from 2018 to 2100, spotlighting notable shifts in countries such as Nigeria, the United States, China, and India.
Originally posted by the Tesla Owners Silicon Valley account, the graph came with the statement: "Population collapse is humanity's greatest threat... Elon Musk." Musk’s retweet, simply saying "Yes," further emphasizes his concern.
While experts recognize the reality of declining populations, discussions continue about the speed and scale of this phenomenon. Key contributors to this trend include lower fertility rates, aging demographics, and emigration. To maintain a stable population, countries ideally need an average of 2.1 children per woman—a target that many are currently missing.
This issue is particularly evident in the United Kingdom, where the fertility rate in England and Wales reached a record low of 1.44 children per woman in 2023, as reported by the Office for National Statistics. This decline reflects a broader global pattern, as fertility rates have fallen dramatically from an average of 5.3 children per woman in 1963 to below half that today, according to the Daily Express.
The graph shared by Musk, first published in 2020, predicts significant shifts in population by the end of the century. In 2018, India and China each had populations around 1.5 billion. However, projections suggest that by 2100, India’s population may decrease to just under 1.1 billion—down by 400 million—while China could see a decrease to approximately 731.9 million, a reduction of 731 million people. Conversely, Nigeria is expected to rise to the second-most populous nation by 2100, reaching a population of 790.1 million.
A report from the University of Washington in 2020 indicates that the population declines in countries like China and India might occur even more rapidly than earlier estimates suggested. Such swift demographic changes could have profound effects on global economic and political landscapes.
Despite the challenges posed by declining fertility rates in many nations, the United States is projected to remain the fourth-largest country by 2100, largely due to favorable net migration. Likewise, Canada and Australia are expected to maintain stable populations through effective migration policies.
On the other hand, countries like Indonesia and Pakistan may experience slight declines, while African nations such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Ethiopia are set for substantial growth. By the century's end, these two countries could surpass population giants like Indonesia and Pakistan, showcasing the dynamic nature of global population trends.
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