Extreme weather events in various regions of the globe have focused policymakers' attention on climate change and energy transition. Goa and Chennai hosted G20 energy and climate ministerial meetings. Earlier, US special envoy on climate change John Kerry's 16-19 July visit to China highlighted the continuing rift between the positions of the world's largest and second-largest emitters, China and the United States. While Kerry stated diplomatically that additional work is required, the Chinese side was direct. President Xi Jinping stated that China's climate objectives "should and must be determined by ourselves, and never under the sway of others."
The G20 is subject to greater pressures than bilateral Sino-American discussions because it is a larger group. Though the meetings produced outcome documents on areas of accord, no consensus could be reached on tripling renewables, phasing out fossil fuels, and advancing the peaking year to 2025. The developed nations exhibited no desire to increase their annual financial commitment beyond $100 billion.
China contributes 31 percent of global emissions. Its relative share in the global total will increase by 2030, as US and EU emissions have already peaked and are declining. China's emissions will continue to increase until 2030, when they will climax. In 10 to 11 years, global temperatures are projected to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. India's choice of a prolonged transition period to net zero emissions by 2070 will not protect her from international pressure. The window is quickly closing. G7 has demanded that all main economies reach an emissions peak by 2025. India has not consented to a peak; our cumulative and per capita emissions are well below the international average.
What options does India have for transitioning to net zero emissions by 2070? In its report, the Task Force of the Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF) addressed two concerns. What is the minimum demand required to achieve net negative emissions? Second, what is the most economical method for meeting the minimum demand? IIT Bombay's mathematical modelling indicates that the demand for electricity will increase to 24,000–30,000 GW by 2070. This appears to be significantly higher than the IEA's estimate of 3,400 GW by 2040. The IEA has not provided a demand forecast for 2070. In 2020, India's energy consumption was 6,200 TWh. With increased development, is it reasonable to anticipate that energy consumption will decrease by half in twenty years as opposed to increasing?
By 2070, the nuclear-high scenario will be the least costly, at $11.2 trillion, while the renewable-high scenario will be the most expensive, at $15.5 trillion. This appears contrary to the common perception, which is founded on declining renewable tariffs. However, this view does not account for system costs. When the sun is not beaming and the wind is not blowing, renewable energy sources must be supplemented with a stable, base-load power source. The Forum of Regulators estimated that this would result in additional costs of Rs 2.12 per unit in 2021. Combined with the solar power tariff of Rs 2 per unit, this makes renewables more expensive than either thermal power (Rs 3.25) or nuclear power (Rs 3.47), at Rs 4.12 per unit.
OECD and MIT studies have previously indicated that the cost of attaining a low carbon target increases "disproportionately" if nuclear power is not included in the generation mix. Due to their low PLF, renewables necessitate a greater capacity expansion, which increases the cost of a renewables-heavy approach. The increased transmission costs associated with renewables exacerbate this issue. All new ultra-mega solar power projects in India must be constructed in remote areas such as Kutch or Ladakh, which raises transmission costs.
According to the VIF study, the renewable high scenario will require more than 4,12,033 square kilometres of land, while the nuclear high scenario will require 1,83,560 square kilometres of land. According to a study by SP Sukhatme, the total amount of surplus territory in India is 200,000 square kilometres.
The $100 billion pledged by developed nations is insufficient. How much money will be released by the reform of MDBs? The change from 20% to 19% in the World Bank's equity-to-loan ratio would discharge $5 billion. Between 2023 and 2030, the World Bank estimates that developing countries will need $2.4 trillion annually to address climate change, conflict, and pandemics. India, as G20 chair, has estimated the annual cost of energy transition to be $4 trillion.
The majority of the funds required for the energy transition must be raised internally. To prevent adding to the government's financial burden, the discoms' financial health must be restored. The rapid expansion of nuclear capacity will require government support, as NPCIL cannot generate resources on this magnitude on its own. Renewables cannot provide baseload power stability. Coal's emission-free alternative is nuclear energy.
Comments