According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), India's trade dependency on China and the EU grew in 2023, while it shrank with Saudi Arabia. Despite what may have been a plateau in services trade, the Global Trade Update indicated that trade in products resumed growth in several major economies, including China and India, in the fourth quarter of 2023. Additionally, it was stated that despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, global trade is anticipated to reverse its decline in 2024 and recover the previous year.
The paper states that in 2023, India's trade dependency on the EU and China rose by 1.2% apiece, while it fell by 0.6% with Saudi Arabia. Further reduction in trade interdependence between the US and China was observed in 2023.
There has been a return to growth in several major economies, notably China and India, according to UNCTAD's analysis of quarter-over-quarter figures.
Several large economies witnessed growth in trade in products towards the end of 2023, according to the research. This included China and India, both of which had 5% increases in imports and exports, respectively. Contrary to prior quarters, retail and services trade stabilized quarter over quarter in the fourth quarter of 2023. During this period, commerce grew in developing nations, particularly in the African, East Asian, and South Asian regions, according to UNCTAD.
After reaching a record high of $32 trillion in 2022, global trade contracted by 3% in 2023, amounting to around $1 trillion. Trade in goods fell $1.3 trillion, or 5%, from 2022 levels, while services remained resilient, increasing by $500 billion, or 8%, from the previous year. Developing nations and South-South trade resumed growth in the fourth quarter of 2023, while trade in wealthy countries stayed flat, reversing trends that had previously shown a steeper fall of almost 7% in 2023.
In the future, according to UNCTAD, global commerce is expected to continue rising in the first quarter of 2024, particularly with the global inflation rate expected to moderate and economic growth predictions looking up.
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