On Wednesday, Crisil Ratings predicted that India's GDP will rise by 6.8 percent in the next fiscal year, and by 2031, the country's economy will have doubled to 7 trillion dollars, allowing it to join the upper middle income bracket.
Crisil said in its India Outlook study that with the help of cyclical levers and domestic structural reforms, the Indian economy may maintain or even enhance its growth prospects, allowing it to surpass China and become the world's third largest economy by 2031.
Indian real GDP growth "will likely moderate to 6.8 percent in fiscal 2025," according to the Crisil India Outlook report, following a better-than-expected 7.6% rise in the current fiscal.
The report predicted that the Indian GDP will surpass USD 5 trillion and approach USD 7 trillion during the next seven fiscal years (2025–2031).
"A projected average expansion of 6.7 per cent in this period will make India the third-largest economy in the world and lift per capita income to the upper-middle income category by 2031," said Crisil.
After the United States, China, Japan, and Germany, India has the world's fifth-largest economy, with a GDP of USD 3.6 trillion.
By fiscal year 2031, Crisil predicts the GDP will have grown to 6.7 trillion USD.
Crisil predicted that India's per capita income will reach $4,500 in fiscal 2031, putting the country in the upper middle-income bracket.
Those with a per capita income between $1,000 and $4,000 are considered lower-middle income according to the World Bank, whereas those with a per capita income between $4,000 and $12,000 are considered upper-middle income.
According to Crisil's Managing Director and CEO Amish Mehta, "By fiscal 2031, India will be the No. 3 economy and an upper-middle income country, which will be a big positive for domestic consumption." Thanks to factors like as strong lender balance sheets, opportunities from global supply-chain diversification, high capacity utilisation across key industries, the green-transition objective, and the push on infrastructure investment, India's manufacturing sector is in a sweet situation.
"Continuous reforms, enhanced global competitiveness and moving up the value chain will boost the share of manufacturing in India's GDP beyond the projected 20 per cent in fiscal 2031," added Mehta.
In their analysis, Crisil identified geopolitics, climate change, unequal global recovery, technology upheavals, and declining potential growth as the near- and medium-term threats to growth forecast.
According to the report, fiscal consolidation will be the norm in the next months and years as government capex plays a smaller and smaller role and the private sector steps up to the plate.
The fastest-growing industries, known as emerging sectors, will use sixteen percent of the incremental capital expenditures in fiscal years 2023 and 2024. These sectors are particularly heavy on electronics, electric vehicles, and the energy transition.
A stronger growth trajectory will be produced by the economy through fiscal 2031 as both the manufacturing and services sectors flare.
According to Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist of Crisil, there is a lot of room for growth in the service and manufacturing sectors to meet both local and international demand.
We anticipate a 9.1% increase in manufacturing and a 6.9% increase in services from fiscal years 2025 to 2031. The services sector will continue to outpace manufacturing in terms of growth, according to Joshi.
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