The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted that by 2050, India's need for electricity to run domestic air conditioners will increase nine-fold, exceeding the total power usage in all of Africa.
The International Energy Agency predicts that, during the next three decades, India will have the highest rise in energy demand of any country or area worldwide.
From a low of 42 exajoules (EJ) in 2022, it predicted that India's energy supply will increase to 53.7 EJ in 2030 and 73 EJ in 2050 under the stated policy scenarios, and to 47.6 EJ in 2030 and 60.3 EJ in 2050 according to published pledges.
Under the assumed policy scenario, oil demand is projected to increase from its 2022 level of 5.2 million bpd to 6.8 million bpd in 2030 and 7.8 million bpd in 2050. This demand expects to see 6.2 million bpd in 2030 and 4.7 million bpd in 2050, based on the announced commitments.
According to the IEA, over 700 heatwaves have occurred in India during the past 50 years, resulting in over 17,000 deaths. Air conditioner ownership in India has steadily risen with expanding affluence, doubling since 2010 to 24 units per 100 households, fuelled by the country's geographical and climatic characteristics.
The Paris-based organization noted, "the impact of cooling needs on electricity consumption is already clear."
"Electricity demand is temperature-sensitive; in India, for example, there is a dramatic spike in demand whenever temperatures rise above 25 degrees Celsius.
Electricity use for space cooling rose by 21% between 2019 and 2022, and now accounts for over 10% of total electricity demand.
"Household air conditioner ownership is estimated to expand ninefold by 2050 across the IEA scenarios, outpacing the growth in ownership of every other major household appliance including televisions, refrigerators and washing machines," according to it.
By 2050, according to STEPS, "residential electricity demand from cooling has increased ninefold."
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), "by 2050, India's total electricity demand from residential air conditioners in STEPS will exceed the total electricity consumption in the whole of Africa today."
While electricity demand for air conditioners is roughly 15 percent lower in 2050 in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) than in the STEPS, this is largely because to increasing usage of energy-efficient air conditioners and thermal insulation in buildings. "This reduction itself is larger than the total electricity generation by several countries today, such as that of the Netherlands" .
The rising peak electricity demand in India can be attributed in part to the rising use of air conditioners and other forms of cooling equipment.
Almost half of the growth in STEPS peak electricity demand from 2022 to 2030 is attributable to cooling.
However, in the APS, the same cooling needs can be satisfied with less energy thanks to the enforcement of construction rules, the use of more efficient equipment, and the introduction of demand response systems. Compared to STEPS, this cuts about a fourth off the growth in peak electricity demand. Since the power system is built to handle peak demand, a decrease in that demand reduces the amount of money and resources needed to maintain the grid.
Even though solar PV is a good fit for cooling requirements during the day, cooling is also a big concern in the evening and night in India.
"Lowering cooling demand through energy efficiency policies therefore reduces the need for investment in batteries or expensive standby generation capacity, and thus helps to integrate renewables more cost effectively," said the IEA.
Increasing regulatory sophistication, a focus on clean energy deployment, and the development of local clean energy technology supply chains are all hallmarks of India's supposedly entering a "dynamic new phase" in its energy development, according to the International Energy Agency.
India has established a net zero emissions target by 2070 and implemented policies to increase renewable energy supply and clean technology production in light of the country's ability to lessen its reliance on imported fossil fuels and its associated carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.
"While clean energy investment in India more than doubles in STEPS by 2030 from around USD 60 billion in 2022, investment needs to nearly triple by the end of this decade to be on a trajectory to meet its net zero emissions target, which is reflected in the APS," said the report.
In spite of India's population growth slowing to replacement levels, the country's urban population will have grown by 74% by 2050, and the country's per capita income will have climbed by a factor of three. Iron and steel production, for example, multiplies by three, while cement production multiplies by two, and the number of homes with air conditioners increases by a factor of nine by 2050.
Even as solar PV expands its share of the energy generation market, "demand for oil and natural gas increases in STEPS by nearly 70 percent between 2022 and 2050." Even yet, the projection predicts that India's yearly CO2 emissions will increase by over 30 percent by 2050, making it one of the world's highest rises.
The APS prognosis has shifted because to the growth in clean energy investment. By 2050, solar contributes almost 45% of STEPS's total generated power and 50% in APS. By 2030, India will have met its goal of generating 50% of its electricity from renewable sources, as outlined in both the STEPS and the APS.
Electromobility, low-emissions hydrogen, grid expansion, and other clean energy infrastructure all increase more quickly as a result of APS clean energy investment in excess of STEPS clean energy investment.
"As a result, India's annual CO2 emissions fall sharply in the APS by over 40 per cent from current levels by 2050, even though its GDP quadruples over this period," said the report.
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