Dr MS Swaminathan epitomized the emergence of India as a food-grain surplus nation during the period of the Green Revolution, from 1965-66 to 1985-86. In these two decades, India more than doubled its production of food grains from 72 million tons to 154 million tons. Although the pace of growth in food grain output declined during the subsequent period from 1985 to 2021, India has emerged as the world’s largest exporter of rice since 2012. Further, its rice exports have doubled from 10 million tons in 2018-19 to over 20 million tons in 2022-23. India exports more rice than the next three exporting countries put together (Thailand, Vietnam, and Pakistan).
Recent events such as the COVID pandemic, global inflation, the Ukraine-Russia war, and El Niño have adversely impacted global food supplies, with the poor being especially vulnerable. The uptick in food grain prices during July 2023 in response to the collapse of the Russia-Ukraine agreement for shipment of wheat exports has prompted the Government of India to ban the export of non-basmati rice and subsequently to put a price floor on basmati rice exports. Expectedly, rice prices in global markets have shot up to levels not seen since the great financial crisis of 2008-09. This global food crisis is likely to be a short-term phenomenon. However, it points to the fact that the long-term food security of rice-eating peoples of Asia and Africa, which account for more than half the world’s population, needs to be addressed urgently.
In this context, India must be ready to assume its responsibility as the world's most significant rice producer and exporter. It is time to envision India as a food bowl of the world because India has the potential not only to meet its fast-growing domestic demand for food but also to become a significant exporter of agricultural produce if it adopts a climate-smart food-grain production strategy that aims at doubling the rate of growth of food-grain production from an average annual growth rate of 2% witnessed over the last two decades (2001-02 to 2021-22) to 4% per annum over the next two decades till 2044.
If this target is achieved, India can double the production of food grains in the next two decades from the current level of 330 million tons to 660 million tons per annum by 2044. There are several good reasons for adopting such a strategy. This will fulfil nutrition, biofuels (renewable energy) requirements, food exports and national security. Its benefits will also enhance rural investment, incomes, and jobs and reduce income inequality and regional disparity. Without such a strategy, the business-as-usual scenario may lead to a situation where India’s food-grain production is threatened by the effects of climate change, and production growth lags behind the increase in domestic demand required to support growing income and consumption levels. Climate-smart Agriculture The average yield of major food grains in India, such as rice, wheat, maize, pulses, soybean, and millets, is just half that of the yield in similar agro-climatic zones where global best practices are followed. It is feasible to double the yield of major food grains in India in a climate-resilient manner, thereby doubling the production without increasing the cultivated (sown) area. This significantly higher level of food production can be achieved in a carbon-neutral or possibly carbon-positive manner by adopting climate-smart practices across the agriculture and food processing sectors. The climate-smart agriculture revolution has to be climate resilient and climate efficient in the sense that agriculture must not only withstand the impact of climate change but also respond to these changes optimally. In essence, a climate-smart agriculture strategy would have to be woven around the three pillars of technology, creating infrastructure, and building new institutions. The main constituents of this strategy are as follows. The required technology includes new varieties of cultivars (seeds) and digitally enabled agronomic practices. The required investment in physical and human infrastructure includes water management infrastructure (irrigation, drainage and flood control) and skill development. Finally, the institutional reforms include new operational units, management practices and new market institutions. These pillars of transformation must be coordinated in each agro-climatic region of India to bring about the required synergies at the national level. The technological requirements of new cultivars and digital infrastructure will require urgent investment in research and development, extension (much simpler and faster now with the digital transformation of India than it was during the Green Revolution), innovation, enterprise creation and skill development, especially in rural India. Nothing less than a transformation of traditional farmers to modern entrepreneurs is required for adopting and diffusing climate-smart agricultural technologies and practices. The absence of water management infrastructure is the most critical bottleneck, impeding the growth of food grain production in India. The eastern Ganga plain has yet to see any significant irrigation project since the Damodar Valley Corporation of the 1950s. The time for large multipurpose projects may have passed now. However, we do require modern environment-friendly irrigation projects to harness the massive flow of usable water in Eastern India in the Ganga basin and to produce hydroelectricity. Much of this water flows to India from Nepal; therefore, such projects also require the construction of water-management infrastructure in Nepal. These international projects are possible when a comprehensive treaty has been executed between the two countries, after which the necessary finances will have to be arranged. The cost of these projects would be about Rs 4 lac crore or US$ 50 billion. The long gestation period of six to eight years for such projects makes it urgent to begin work on the international treaty and the design and financial closure of these projects so they can be completed in the next ten years. Significant investment of a similar magnitude (Rs 4 lac crore) is required to enhance water management infrastructure in the Deccan, trans-Vindhya and Chhota Nagpur regions of Central and Southern India. In addition, there is a shelf of ongoing irrigation projects in India which require an investment in the range of Rs 5 lac crore (US$ 60 billion) to complete. This total required investment of about US$ 160 billion (Rs 13 lac crore) in water management infrastructure over 10 years amounts to only 5% of India’s current annual GDP. The benefits include not only irrigation, flood control, hydroelectricity and ecological stabilisation of the Himalayas but also the potential of carbon capture with increased green cover and afforestation. New management practices are required for scaling up farm operational holdings, which need to be in the range of at least 400 to 1,000 hectares so as to support the necessary management talent (human resources) and digital and physical infrastructure that is required for greater efficiency and productivity in climate-smart agricultural practices. This larger ‘village-sized’ scale of operations can be achieved by facilitating institutional changes consistent with India’s rural sociology, such as collective farm operations conducted by cooperative societies, village-level enterprises, etc. We would have to carve out unique corporate structures that can leverage the economic benefits of scale while maintaining social acceptability, accountability, and justice. Climate change is likely to result in greater volatility of the yields and prices of food grains. These risks must be managed and mitigated by building insurance markets and commodity futures markets, respectively. In particular, a National Commodities Futures Exchange (NCFE) for all major agricultural commodities will be promoted with the active participation of the Government, which can replace its spot purchases (procurement) and sales with futures contracts. The participation of the Government as a significant and trusted player (market maker) in the NCFE will build trust amongst farmers who can hedge (insure) their crop price risk in advance with online futures contracts. Conclusion As we march towards becoming a USD 35 trillion economy by 2047, the propulsion would have to come from agriculture and food grain production that lies at the base of the pyramid of value addition in the economy. It also supports the Agri- and food-processing industry, which shall be a massive contributor to our circular bio-economy, which is expected to grow to about USD 300 billion by 2034 from its current level of USD 80 billion. The transition to climate-smart agriculture in two decades can transform India’s agriculture, significantly increase food grain output, ensure better nutrition, increase renewable energy potential, improve climate resilience and climate efficiency of the economy and also make India a reliable exporter of food grains to the rest of the world. The main investments required for this transition are in the three pillars of Infrastructure, Institutions and Technology. This strategy of climate-smart agriculture focused on three factors that can enable India to ensure its national food security and renewable energy requirements and also emerge as the world's food bowl by 2044.
by Karan Avtar Singh & Anirudh Tewari
https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/amp/blog/its-time-for-india-to-emerge-as-food-bowl-of-the-world-by-adopting-climate-smart-food-grain-production/105418724
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